TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in O. Selekhmeteva vs S. Kraus (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with S. Kraus favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | O. Selekhmeteva | S. Kraus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.9% | 42.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Selekhmeteva | clay | 1627 | 102–59 | 161 |
| S. Kraus | clay | 1776 | 175–88 | 263 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 0 |
| April 13, 2026 | Oeiras | clay | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 |
| March 11, 2026 | Austin | hard | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 |
| May 15, 2023 | Paris Challenger Women | clay | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Ito | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | Y. Kotliar | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: O. Selekhmeteva (A) vs S. Kraus (B) | Wimbledon 1/64-finals, grass MODELS: ELO prob A: 0.441 (favors Kraus) ML prob A: 0.579 (favors Selekhmeteva) Model(final) A: 0.441 / B 0.559 Market: A 2.00 (47.4%) / B 1.80 (52.6%) -> value_pick B, edge +3.2% Split: ELO + market agree on Kraus; ML disagrees toward Selekhmeteva. FORM (grass, last weeks): Selekhmeteva: Eastbourne FINAL (lost 6-7 6-2 6-7 to Zakharova 1651, GRIND); SF beat Rakhimova (1666) 7-6 2-6 6-1; but Nottingham SF lost to weak Preston (1486) 4-6 3-6. Strong run, uneven floor. Kraus: WON Bad Homburg grass TITLE 9d ago (SF d.Martincova 6-4 6-3, F d.Zarazua 6-2 7-5); then lost Bad Homburg 1/16 to Kalinskaya. Berlin SF + Ilkley losses earlier. Heavy schedule but rested ~8d now. H2H: Kraus d. Selekhmeteva 6-4 4-6 6-3 (Oeiras, clay, 2026-04-13). FATIGUE: A 3 matches/14d, ~260min, last 06-21 (9d rest). B 4/14d, ~233min, last 06-22 (8d rest). Court-time diff 27min, matches diff 1 -> Roughly equal; both well rested now. NARRATIVE: Let-down A: last Final Eastbourne 06-21 LOST, 9d ago -> None (outside window). Let-down B: last Final Bad Homburg 06-21 WON, 9d ago -> None (outside window). TITLE: Kraus Bad Homburg 9d ago (grass) -> live grass momentum favors B. Venue: neither has Wimbledon history in sample. VERDICT: PASS. Models do not mutually agree (ELO/market lean Kraus, ML leans Selekhmeteva). Market edge on Kraus is thin (3.2%) at short 1.80, and ELO already agrees -> efficient, no value. ML's lean toward Selekhmeteva is contradicted by the qualitative read (H2H loss + Kraus's fresh grass title). Both reached grass finals last week, so live form is genuinely close. No actionable edge.