TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in O. Lincer vs T. Maria (Newport on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.03.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | O. Lincer | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
17.7% | 82.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.5% | 78.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
9.3% | 90.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
T. Maria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Kulikova | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Inoue | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
| W | S. Williams | 2 - 0 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used