TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Eala (moneyline) at 2.62 in N. Osaka vs A. Eala (Washington on 2026-08-01). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | A. Eala |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.4% | 39.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.2% | 42.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.7% | 36.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. Eala leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Washington | hard | A. Eala | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
N. Osaka (A, rank 16, age 28) vs A. Eala (B, rank 42, age 21) — Washington, hard, SF.
MODELS vs MARKET
Market: Osaka 1.49 / Eala 2.62 -> implied Osaka 63.7%, Eala ~38%.
ELO: Osaka 60.4% | ML: Osaka 42.1% (=> Eala 57.9%) | Blended: Osaka 57.2%.
Huge ELO-vs-ML split. ML has Eala the favourite; market has her a 38% dog.
Value_pick B, edge 6.5% (book).
ELO/RANKING SANITY
ELO favours Osaka but is STALE for Eala: this window she has beaten Swiatek
(1965), Rybakina (1838), Zheng (1920), Svitolina (2029), Fernandez (1817).
Her rating is climbing fast and ELO understates her current level. Classic
live-form > historical-ELO + SHARPENING-dog spot. ML is the credible model here.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
Eala (B) — path at THIS event is elite and SHARPENING:
07-31 QF W vs Svitolina (2029, Elite) 6-3 6-4 -> DOM over Elite
07-29 R16 W vs Fernandez (1817, def. champ) straight sets
07-28 R32 W vs Zheng (1920, Elite) 4-6 6-4 6-1 -> GRIND win over Elite
07-06 Wimb L vs Paolini (1817) 3 sets
07-04 Wimb W vs Swiatek (1965) 7-6 6-2
4 matches deep at venue = match-sharp; three top wins on this hard court.
Osaka (A) — thin week:
07-31 QF W vs Cocciaretto (1824) 6-4 4-6 3-6 -> 3-set GRIND, WON YESTERDAY
07-29 R16 W vs Krueger (1727) 3-6 1-3 -> opponent retired (freebie)
07-07 Wimb L vs Muchova (1880)
07-05 Wimb W vs Sabalenka (1942) -> big win
07-03 Wimb W vs Kasatkina (1669)
Path = a retirement + one full 3-set grind. Match-rustier than Eala.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Osaka WON a 3-set match YESTERDAY (vs Cocciaretto) -> calibrated 3-set-hangover
haircut -4.5pp on Osaka. Age 28 = baseline, no modulation. Confirms the fade.
Eala won yesterday in STRAIGHT sets (2-set, ~neutral, no haircut); she carries
more cumulative court time (253 vs 159 min, 3 matches, b2b=1) but she is 21
(recovers fast) and won efficiently -> context only, not an edge against her.
NARRATIVE
No H2H shown. No let-down spot. Neither in a surface transition (both on hard
after grass but the whole tour transitioned; both have multiple hard matches
this week). Venue: Eala 4-0 at Washington this week, on a tear.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: PASS — edge is numeric (ML Eala 57.9% vs market 38%; ~20pp)
BEFORE any fatigue/narrative. Hangover only confirms.
G2 consensus: PASS (stake-tier) — strict model count is lone (ML only), BUT
hard independent evidence exists = live this-event wins over Svitolina/
Fernandez/Zheng on this surface. Tempered to 1.5u given book-only price.
G3 fatal-risk: N/A for ML (never blocks). Osaka hard-court pedigree/4 slams
is the negating risk -> reflected in a conservative 50% and capped units.
PRICING
No betfair_ml (alt_markets null) -> BOOK-PRICED. ML bet needs edge >= 8% vs book.
My Eala win prob 0.50. Edge = 0.50 - 1/2.62 = 0.50 - 0.382 = +11.8% (>8%). OK.
min_odds = 1.05/0.50 = 2.10; taken 2.62 > 2.10. Clears.
refutation_check: no web search available in environment (proxy 302); brief
player_notes for Eala empty, no injury/withdrawal signal -> clean, no change.
AH: not quoted.
alt_markets: none at analysis time
VERDICT: BET Eala ML @ 2.62 (book), 1.5u. ML-vs-market disagreement validated by
a SHARPENING dog beating elite fields on this exact surface while a rustier,
hangover-carrying Osaka is priced 63.7%. Market is anchored to ranking/ELO the
live form has outrun. Predicted match winner (nominal): coin-flip, Osaka edge
on pedigree — the bet is the price on Eala, not a claim she is the favourite.