TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Basiletti vs A. Abbagnato (Rome on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with N. Basiletti favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Basiletti | A. Abbagnato |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.5% | 34.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.8% | 39.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Basiletti | clay | 1490 | 32–35 | 67 |
| A. Abbagnato | clay | 1365 | 57–61 | 118 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
N. Basiletti leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Basiletti | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Weckerle | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferro | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Serban | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Basiletti | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | R. Zhang | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | C. Gennaro | 2 - 0 | June 11, 2026 |
| W | G. Ferro | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used