TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Yamaguchi vs G. Minnen (Newport on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with G. Minnen favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Yamaguchi | G. Minnen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.2% | 78.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.3% | 64.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.2% | 75.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.4% | 86.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Yamaguchi | hard | 1508 | 95–88 | 183 |
| G. Minnen | hard | 1667 | 122–81 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
G. Minnen leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Newport | grass | G. Minnen | 2 - 0 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | R. Marino | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | G. Minnen | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | E. Koike | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Inglis | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Brengle | 2 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | D. Vidmanova | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Yamaguchi | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used