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M. Trevisan vs F. Jones — Prediction & Analysis

Rome · Rome - Semi-finals · July 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Trevisan vs F. Jones (Rome on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.57.

Surface clay Odds M. Trevisan 2.48 · F. Jones 1.57

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: M. Trevisan · F. Jones · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ M. Trevisan vs F. Jones — Rome (clay) Semi-finals ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Market: Trevisan 2.48 (38.8% norm) | Jones 1.57 (61.2% norm, 63.7% raw)
  ELO: Jones 68.0% | ML: Jones 85.6% | Blend: Jones 66.7%
  Value pick: B (Jones), edge 5.5% (backend) — driven almost entirely by ML outlier

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used in classification)
  Trevisan (3-0 in Rome this week, 6-10 overall in window):
    07-17 Rome QF        W vs Yaneva (1610, Avg)      6-4 2-6 2-6  (3-set win)
    07-16 Rome 1/8       W vs Zantedeschi (1593, Avg) 1-6 6-7      GRIND (TB)
    07-14 Rome 1/16      W vs Grant (1742, Strong)    6-0 6-3      DOM vs Strong
    07-09 Aschaffenburg  L vs Riera (1500, Weak)      4-6 1-6
    07-08 Aschaffenburg  W vs Tsygourova (1500, Weak) 6-2 4-6 6-4  GRIND-ish 3-setter
  Jones (3-0 in Rome this week, 8-13 overall in window):
    07-17 Rome QF        W vs Noha Akugue (1606, Avg) 6-3 6-1      DOM vs Avg
    07-15 Rome 1/8       W vs Urgesi (1567, Avg)      2-6 6-4 6-1  3-set win
    07-13 Rome 1/16      W vs Spiteri (1465, Weak)    1-6 6-1 6-0  3-set win
    07-09 Contrexeville  L vs Jeanjean (1676, Strong) 6-1 4-6 5-7
    07-07 Contrexeville  W vs Rame (1481, Weak)       6-2 7-5

FATIGUE (precomputed)
  Trevisan: 5 matches/14d, 15 sets, 447 min, back-to-back x2, last 07-17
  Jones:    5 matches/14d, 15 sets, 500 min, back-to-back 0,  last 07-17
  Court-time diff 53 min (Jones heavier), matches diff 0 → Slight edge only; effectively a wash

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none for either (no recent Finals)
  Venue: both 3-0 in this Rome event (Trevisan 3-1 incl. May WTA Rome loss) — no differential
  Title recency: none in window for either

VERDICT — LEAN (Jones)
  ELO (68%) and blend (66.7%) sit on top of the market (63.7%); only ML (85.6%) disagrees.
  Own estimate for Jones ~65% → ~2pt edge at 1.57 — below the bet bar.
  Qualitative is mixed: Jones's week is cleaner (DOM QF, improving through draw) but her
  DOM came vs an Avg opponent and her pre-Rome form was poor (5 L in 7); Trevisan's DOM
  came vs the strongest opponent either faced (Grant, 1742). Fatigue near-equal.
  Single-model disagreement without clean qualitative validation → no stake. Lean Jones.

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