TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Topo vs P. Martin Tiffon (Umag on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with P. Martin Tiffon favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Topo | P. Martin Tiffon |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.3% | 55.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.7% | 48.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Topo | clay | 1514 | 106–87 | 193 |
| P. Martin Tiffon | clay | 1603 | 204–130 | 334 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Topo leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Umag | clay | M. Topo | 1 - 0 |
| L | D. Recek | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | O. J. Gutierrez | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | E. Moller | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Aboian | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | L. Rossi | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Topo | 1 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | G. A. Bailly | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | C. H. Tseng | 2 - 1 | May 29, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 1 | May 28, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used