TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Timofeeva vs H. Watson (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with M. Timofeeva favoured at 1.86.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Timofeeva | H. Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.6% | 65.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.7% | 68.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.8% | 49.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Timofeeva | hard | 1616 | 92–61 | 153 |
| H. Watson | hard | 1586 | 117–80 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
M. Timofeeva leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 25, 2025 | Singapore | hard | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Haddad Maia | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Pareja | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Rakhimova | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
JSON parse error — mathematical summary: H. Watson shows 13.2% edge at 1.92 odds (consensus: 37.6% vs market 50.8%). Manual review recommended.