TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Sawangkaew vs T. Maria (Newport on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sawangkaew | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.9% | 74.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.3% | 58.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1718 | 145–79 | 224 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
T. Maria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. S. Liang | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used