TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Sawangkaew vs M. Stoiana (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with M. Stoiana favoured at 1.82.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sawangkaew | M. Stoiana |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.8% | 67.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.8% | 67.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.0% | 52.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1718 | 145–79 | 224 |
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Sawangkaew leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10, 2026 | Newport | grass | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 |
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. S. Liang | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used