TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Sawangkaew +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.98 in M. Sawangkaew vs L. Fernandez (US Open on 2026-09-01). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sawangkaew | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.3% | 74.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1671 | 154–89 | 243 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1934 | 139–90 | 229 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 3, 2026.
L. Fernandez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2, 2026 | US Open | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | X. Sun | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 1 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | Walk Over | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
All Sept. 1, 2026 results & picks →