TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Podlinska vs U. Radwanska (Warsaw on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with U. Radwanska favoured at 1.49.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Podlinska | U. Radwanska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.3% | 61.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Podlinska | clay | 1263 | 60–55 | 115 |
| U. Radwanska | hard | 1313 | 75–98 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
U. Radwanska leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2, 2026 | Warsaw | hard | U. Radwanska | 2 - 0 |
| L | V. Valdmannova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | U. Radwanska | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | K. Kajabova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kmiecik | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Iliev | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Falei | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Podlinska | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | V. Ryser | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Sorska | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Adeshina | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
=== Podlinska (A) vs Radwanska (B) - Warsaw, HARD ===
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO/model: A 33.4 pct | B 66.6 pct
ML: A 52.3 pct | B 47.7 pct (19pt split - models flatly contradict)
Book: A 2.40 / B 1.49 Betfair: A 2.16 (~46 pct) / B 1.75 (~57 pct)
value_pick B (+4.9 pct vs book) is ELO-driven only.
RECENT FORM (top 5)
A M. Podlinska (27, #651) - ALL recent on CLAY (transition to hard = RISK):
07-30 L Kajabova(1500) 6-3 6-3 | 07-29 W Kmiecik 3set GRIND | 07-23 L Iliev 3set
07-22 W Soulie | 07-01 L Tverijonaite. Poor W15 level. FADING.
B U. Radwanska (35, #693) - ex-WTA top30, now W15/W50:
07-30 L Ryser 6-2 6-0 (blowout) | 07-29 W Sorska 6-1 6-3 DOM | 07-14 L Adeshina(1391) 6-3 6-2 hard
05-21 L Visscher | 05-19 W Peet. Mixed/FADING; run over last out.
FATIGUE (Step 2)
Both last played 07-30 (~3d rest). A: 4m/14d 413min b2b2. B: 2m/14d 113min.
No extreme spot; A 27 but on transition. Roughly equal - no edge.
NARRATIVE
No Finals/titles. Surface transition on A (clay->hard) = risk for backing A.
ELO/RANK SANITY: ranks equal (651 vs 693) yet ELO makes B heavy fav - Radwanska's
ELO inflated by career peak, not current W15 level (lost 6-2 6-0). ELO edge DISCOUNTED.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL - only edge (B ~8 pct vs Betfair) rests entirely on a stale/inflated
ELO that ML contradicts (ML gives B just 47.7 pct = negative edge). No robust edge survives.
G2 consensus: lone-model (ELO), contaminated (career-farmed rating) - stake-cap tier.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML market).
MARKET CHOICE
alt_markets: betfair_ml only (handicap/totals null). No margin market.
AH: not quoted
VERDICT: PASS. Two out-of-form ITF players; a coin-flip where ELO and ML disagree by 19pts
and the ELO input is untrustworthy for a former-top veteran now at W15 level. No stakeable edge.