TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Navone vs F. Cobolli (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with F. Cobolli favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Navone | F. Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.4% | 80.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.8% | 64.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.4% | 74.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Navone | clay | 1815 | 195–108 | 303 |
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
F. Cobolli leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Cobolli | 3 - 1 |
| July 22, 2024 | ATP Umag | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
M. Navone vs F. Cobolli — Wimbledon R64, GRASS MODELS: ELO 19.4% | ML 35.8% | blended 25.4% (Navone). Market implied 18.8%. Value tag = A +6.6%, but ELO basically agrees with market (edge +0.6%); the whole edge is the ML outlier (+16.9%). FORM: - Navone (clay specialist): strong CLAY stretch — Geneva final, beat Ruud (Elite 2021) & Norrie (Strong 1843), FO R64 DOM over Brooksby. GRASS: 0-1, lost only grass match to Sonego (Mallorca R32, 6-7 6-2 4-6). Grass is his worst surface. - Cobolli: FRENCH OPEN FINALIST (lost Zverev 5 sets, 23d ago), beat Auger-Aliassime, Medvedev, DOM over Tien. Far higher tier. Grass recent weak (lost Halle R32 to Tiafoe, lost Hurlingham exo to Etcheverry) but quality gap is large. FATIGUE: roughly equal, both rested — Navone last match 9d ago (128min avg), Cobolli last ATP 15d, exo 3d (80min). No fatigue edge either way. NARRATIVE: Cobolli's last Final = LOST FO Final 23d ago — too far back for a let-down play. No venue history (neither plays Wimbledon in sample). VERDICT: The ML edge on Navone is NOT validated by the read. He is a clay grinder on his single worst surface against a Slam finalist; ELO + market consensus (~19%) is the credible number. Surface mismatch kills the model edge. PASS.