TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. McDonald vs R. Carballes Baena (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with M. McDonald favoured at 1.47.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. McDonald | R. Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.7% | 31.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.4% | 36.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McDonald | hard | 1689 | 131–104 | 235 |
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. McDonald leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 29, 2026 | Quimper | hard | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Svajda | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Butvilas | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | P. Kypson | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used