TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. McDonald vs C. O'Connell (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with C. O'Connell favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. McDonald | C. O'Connell |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.7% | 43.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.6% | 57.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McDonald | hard | 1689 | 131–104 | 235 |
| C. O'Connell | hard | 1700 | 131–96 | 227 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. McDonald leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. McDonald | 3 - 0 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Svajda | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Butvilas | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | P. Kypson | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Martin | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 3 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used