TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Matoula vs Y. Putintseva (Bastad on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with Y. Putintseva favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Matoula | Y. Putintseva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.8% | 75.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.6% | 87.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.3% | 42.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.8% | 75.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.0% | 87.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Matoula | clay | 1507 | 111–90 | 201 |
| Y. Putintseva | hard | 1750 | 113–90 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Y. Putintseva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Bastad | clay | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 |
| W | Y. Mansouri | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | I. Balus | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | V. Ivanov | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Van Impe | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Ce | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used