TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. L. Carle vs L. Pigossi (Contrexeville on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with M. L. Carle favoured at 1.37.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. L. Carle | L. Pigossi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.0% | 54.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.5% | 32.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. L. Carle | clay | 1548 | 166–111 | 277 |
| L. Pigossi | clay | 1597 | 122–95 | 217 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
L. Pigossi leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 3, 2023 | Buenos Aires Challenger Women | clay | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 22, 2021 | W25 Rio do Sul | clay | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Lene | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Niemeier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Pieri | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | B. Cengiz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | D. Salkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Werner | 1 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | P. Hercog | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used