TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kuramochi vs A. Alexander (Vancouver on 2026-07-26) — the market is efficient, with M. Kuramochi favoured at 1.14.
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO 83.5% A | ML 84.1% A | Blend 76.4% A | Market implied 80.8% A (book 1.14/4.80)
Betfair ML: 1.02/1.02 -- degenerate/illiquid quote, NO executable exchange price. Book-priced segment (small ITF event) = the segment the backtest loses on.
Value flag: B at +4.4% (blend) -- below the 5% minimum bar, and below the 8% bar required for book-priced ML.
alt_markets handicap/totals: null -- ML only.
DATA QUALITY
Player B (A. Alexander) metadata is corrupted: age 56, ranking 5 -- impossible for a WTA/ITF player with ELO ~1111. Rank cross-check unusable; ELO gap (Kuramochi ~1459 vs Alexander ~1111) is the only class signal and it agrees with the market direction.
RECENT FORM (5 most recent shown)
Kuramochi (A, 28, rank 351):
07-26 Vancouver SF W vs Kuwata (1247) 7.7-6.2 6-4 -- GRIND (tiebreak)
07-24 W35 Saskatoon QF L vs Chavez (1303)
07-23 W35 Saskatoon R16 W vs Alexander (1111) -- H2H WIN 3 days ago
07-22 W35 Saskatoon R32 W vs Kupres (1349)
07-16 W75 Granby R16 L vs Koike (1509)
Alexander (B):
07-25 Vancouver SF W vs Okalova (1344) 6-4 4-6 7-6 -- GRIND (3-set TB)
07-23 W35 Saskatoon R16 L vs Kuramochi (1459) -- lost the direct H2H
07-22 W35 Saskatoon R32 W vs Ostrzygalo (1161)
07-15 W75 Granby R32 L vs Sema (1352)
Both players operate vs Weak/Avg fields; no DOM wins vs Strong+ on either side.
FATIGUE (precomputed)
Kuramochi: 6 matches/14d, 481 court-min, b2b x2, played TODAY (SF 07-26). Age 28 -- baseline recovery. Heavier side, disadvantaged on raw court time (+167 min).
Alexander: 4 matches/14d, 314 min, last played 07-25.
Fatigue leans toward the dog -- but fatigue cannot create an edge (G1), only confirm one, and no numerical edge exists.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (Kuramochi's W15 Sapporo title 28d ago -- outside window).
Venue: both 1-0 at Vancouver (won their SFs). No surface transition -- both on hard throughout.
H2H: Kuramochi beat Alexander 3 days ago on hard. Live evidence supports the favourite.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL -- no numerical model-vs-market edge: A-side edge 2.7% book-priced (needs 8%), B-side blend edge 4.4% (below 5%); any dog case would be fatigue-manufactured.
G2 consensus: FAIL (for any B bet) -- market, ELO and ML all favour A, and the live H2H 3 days ago went to A.
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL -- degenerate exchange quote (1.02/1.02) means no executable price; corrupted player-B metadata undermines any precision claim.
VERDICT: PASS
Full model-market consensus on Kuramochi, sub-bar edges on both sides, no exchange liquidity, and dirty data on the underdog. Fatigue on Kuramochi is real (played earlier today) but is confirmation-only and has nothing to confirm. No bet in any market.