TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kostyuk vs L. Noskova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with M. Kostyuk favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | L. Noskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.5% | 62.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
| L. Noskova | hard | 1892 | 107–53 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 |
| April 29, 2026 | Madrid | clay | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Muchova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
═══ M. Kostyuk vs L. Noskova — Wimbledon SF (grass) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Book: Kostyuk 1.72 / Noskova 2.10 (implied A ~55%)
Betfair: 1.74 / 2.32 (exchange A ~57% — sharper than book, sides HARDER with Kostyuk)
ELO: A 30.4% | ML: A 46.4% | Blend: A 43.4%
Value flag: B (Noskova) +11.5% edge — both models disagree with market → candidate
RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
Kostyuk (5-0 at Wimbledon):
07-08 W QF Paolini (1853, Elite) 6-3 6-2 — DOM vs Elite
07-06 W R16 Krueger (1874, Elite) 6-4 6-4 — DOM vs Elite
07-04 W R32 Navarro (1843, Strong) in 3 — solid
07-02 W R64 Blinkova (1644, Avg) w/ TB — GRIND
06-30 W R128 Podoroska (1454, Weak) straight — DOM
Deeper: RG SF (beat Swiatek, Svitolina), Madrid TITLE (beat Pegula, Andreeva), Rouen title. Monster 2026 surge.
Noskova (5-0 at Wimbledon):
07-08 W QF Mertens (1834, Strong) 6-3 7-5 — DOM vs Strong
07-06 W R16 Keys (1930, Elite) w/ TB — GRIND vs Elite
07-04 W R32 Cirstea (1576, Avg) 3 sets w/ TB — GRIND
07-02 W R64 Osorio (1578, Avg) in 3 — solid
06-30 W R128 Seidel (1549, Avg) straight — DOM
Deeper: Berlin TITLE 18d ago (grass, beat Pegula/Eala/Badosa) — elite grass form.
FATIGUE — Roughly equal-to-slight edge Kostyuk
Both: 5 matches / 15 sets in 14d, last played 07-08, no back-to-back.
Court time: Kostyuk 346min vs Noskova 385min (diff 39min — minor).
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none live for either (Noskova's Berlin final 18d ago; Kostyuk's Madrid 68d ago).
Venue: both 5-0 at this Wimbledon.
Titles: Noskova — Berlin 18d ago (grass). Kostyuk — Madrid 68d ago (clay, 1000-level).
H2H: Kostyuk beat Noskova in Madrid QF (04-29), incl. a 6-0 set.
VERDICT — PASS
The +11.5% model edge on Noskova is ELO-driven, and Kostyuk's ELO is demonstrably stale:
since April she has won Rouen + Madrid, made the RG SF beating Swiatek and Svitolina, and just
posted back-to-back DOM wins over Elite opponents here. Live form > historical ELO. She also
owns the recent H2H and is marginally fresher. The Betfair exchange pricing Noskova LONGER
(2.32) than the book (2.10) confirms sharp money rejects the B value. Qualitative read kills
the model edge → no validation → no bet.
Alt markets: Under 22.5 shows ~7% model edge (57.1% vs 50% implied), but it is downstream of
the same 43/57 win-prob I distrust; a truer coin-flip match raises three-set/over frequency.
Handicap model probs null, no independent margin read. Thin alt edge = PASS across all markets.
Match forecast: Kostyuk ~55%, likely tight (grass, two in-form players).