TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kessler vs D. Kasatkina (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.77.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kessler | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.3% | 56.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.5% | 51.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.5% | 53.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kessler | hard | 1792 | 101–54 | 155 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 24, 2024 | WTA Tokyo | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
JSON parse error — mathematical summary: M. Kessler shows 1.7% edge at 2.04 odds (consensus: 48.2% vs market 46.5%). Manual review recommended.