TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kecmanovic vs A. Rinderknech (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with A. Rinderknech favoured at 1.85.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kecmanovic | A. Rinderknech |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.1% | 55.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.1% | 51.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kecmanovic | hard | 1734 | 98–98 | 196 |
| A. Rinderknech | hard | 1775 | 126–102 | 228 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A. Rinderknech leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2025 | Geneva | clay | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2021 | US Open | hard | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 2 |
| W | M. Zheng | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Tabur | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 3 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used