TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Jorge vs A. Gasanova (Caldas da Rainha on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with A. Gasanova favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Jorge | A. Gasanova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
80.5% | 19.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.0% | 45.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.5% | 63.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Jorge | hard | 1614 | 96–97 | 193 |
| A. Gasanova | hard | 1645 | 129–71 | 200 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 13, 2026 | W50 Evora | hard | M. Jorge | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 3, 2026 | W50 Leiria | hard | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| W | S. Johnson | 1 - 2 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 0 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | G. Minnen | 1 - 1 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | M. Rouvroy | 0 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Jorge | 2 - 0 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 0 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| W | F. Jorge | 0 - 2 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | I. Dapkute | 0 - 2 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | M. Martinez Vaquero | 0 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →