TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs J. Draper (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with J. Draper favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | J. Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.8% | 74.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.1% | 56.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.8% | 74.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.6% | 63.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
J. Draper leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| April 8, 2025 | Monte Carlo | clay | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| June 12, 2024 | ATP Stuttgart | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 16, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | J. Draper | 3 - 2 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 1 - 1 | April 13, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used