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M. Fucsovics vs C. Moutet — Prediction & Analysis

Montreal · ATP Montreal - 1/64-finals · Aug. 3, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Fucsovics vs C. Moutet (Montreal on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with M. Fucsovics favoured at 1.61.

Surface hard Odds M. Fucsovics 1.61 · C. Moutet 2.30

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: M. Fucsovics · C. Moutet · head-to-head record · Montreal

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method M. Fucsovics C. Moutet
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 53.7% 46.3%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 36.3% 63.7%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 62.8% 37.2%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 53.2% 46.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 58.8% 41.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
M. Fucsovics hard1755 95–76171
C. Moutet hard1763 93–73166

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.

Head to head

C. Moutet leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 4, 2026MontrealhardC. Moutet2 - 0
Aug. 12, 2024ATP CincinnatihardC. Moutet2 - 1
April 19, 2024ATP BucharestclayM. Fucsovics2 - 1
Oct. 22, 2022ViennahardM. Fucsovics2 - 0
Jan. 12, 2022Adelaide 2hardC. Moutet2 - 0

Recent form

M. Fucsovics

L C. Moutet 0 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
L A. Davidovich Fokina 3 - 0 July 3, 2026
W L. Tien 3 - 1 July 1, 2026
W L. van Assche 0 - 1 June 29, 2026
L B. Nakashima 2 - 0 June 16, 2026

C. Moutet

W M. Fucsovics 0 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
L J. Brooksby 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
L J. Fonseca 3 - 1 July 18, 2026
L C. Norrie 3 - 1 July 17, 2026
L T. Griekspoor 2 - 3 July 16, 2026

All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

FUCSOVICS (A) vs MOUTET (B) — Montreal, hard, 1/64-finals
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MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO: A 53.7% | ML: A 36.3% | Blend: A 53.2%  — three-way split.
  Book odds_a 1.61 (58.8%) is STALE/soft. Exchange (truth): betfair_ml A 2.04 / B 1.90
  -> normalized A ~48.2% / Moutet ~51.8%: exchange makes MOUTET the slight favourite.
  ELO/blend favour Fucsovics; ML strongly favours Moutet; exchange leans Moutet.

EDGE (executable exchange price, 5% commission)
  Fucsovics @2.04 -> eff 1.988 (50.3%). Blend edge +2.9% / ELO edge +3.4% — BELOW 5% bar.
  Moutet @1.90 -> eff 1.855 (53.9%). Model_b 46.8% -> edge -7.1% (overvalued). No value.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown)
  Fucsovics: L ADF (1789, grass); W Tien (1623, GRIND 4set); W van Assche (ret 3-6 0-4);
    L Nakashima (1745); L FAA (1716). Notable W over Hurkacz (Elite 1826) on grass.
    Last match 2026-07-03 -> ~30d LAYOFF (rust). Last surface grass -> HARD TRANSITION.
  Moutet: L Brooksby (1721, hard 6-4 6-4, 4d ago); UTS exhibition losses (ignore scores);
    L Giron (1622, Wimb); L Shelbayh (1411, WEAK — under-performing); L ADF (1671).
    Shape = FADING: 1 win in last 9 real ATP matches. But match-sharp on hard.

FATIGUE / PATH
  Fucsovics: well-rested but RUSTY (30d off) + grass->hard transition, first match at venue. Age 34.
  Moutet: matches_14d 2, last 2026-07-29 (4d rest) — no extreme spot. Match-active on hard.
  No calibrated 3-set hangover applies. Net: neither has a fatigue edge.

ELO/RANKING SANITY
  Moutet ranked 35 but ELO implies ~46% (below Fucsovics ranked 57): strong-rank / low-ELO,
  ELO likely UNDERSTATES Moutet (freefall form dragging rating). -> do NOT back Fucsovics on the ELO gap.

NARRATIVE
  No Final/let-down signal. No title recency. Surface transition on Fucsovics (RISK).

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — Fucsovics edge only +2.9%/+3.4% at exchange, below 5% pre-adjustment;
                  qualitative (rust + transition) argues against, not for. Moutet -7.1%.
  G2 consensus:   stake-tier only (n/a — no bet).
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (no ML bet).

MARKET CHOICE
  ML: no side clears bar (A +2.9%/+3.4% below 5%; B overvalued).
  Handicap: quoted line 0.5 vs model spread 1.5 mismatch; no clean edge. AH: B +1.5 @ 1.95.
  Totals: line 23.0, under model ~0.53 vs eff impl 0.531 -> ~0% edge.
  alt_markets present but no stakeable edge.

VERDICT: PASS. Fucsovics-value thesis rests on an ELO/blend edge (~3%) that is (a) below bar,
  (b) contradicted by ML, (c) built on an ELO the ranking says understates Moutet, and (d)
  unsupported by the path read (rusty + transitioning favourite vs match-sharp opponent).
  Moutet overpriced to back. No stakeable edge across ML/handicap/total.

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