TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Frech vs A. Kalinskaya (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Kalinskaya favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Frech | A. Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.0% | 76.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.2% | 53.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.0% | 76.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Frech | hard | 1745 | 122–98 | 220 |
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1880 | 126–78 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| July 18, 2022 | Hamburg | clay | M. Frech | 1 - 0 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used