TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Damm vs H. Rocha (Montreal on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with M. Damm favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Damm | H. Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.8% | 26.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
64.5% | 35.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Damm leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Montreal | hard | M. Damm | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 13, 2025 | Sumter | hard | H. Rocha | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 24, 2023 | ITF M25 Faro Men | hard | M. Damm | 2 - 1 |
| W | H. Rocha | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Coppejans | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Damm | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | N. Mejia | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 0 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
═══ MODELS vs MARKET ═══
Damm (A) @1.44 (book impl 69.4%, devig 64.5%) | Rocha (B) @2.62 (impl 38.2%)
ELO A 63.5% | ML A 73.8% | model A 63.5% | value_pick B (edge +1.06%)
ELO ≈ market (~64%) agree on Damm; ML is the lone high outlier at 73.8%.
No betfair_ml / no alt_markets → book-priced only.
═══ RECENT FORM (last 5) ═══
DAMM (A, 22, #115) — ON HARD, match-sharp, SHARPENING:
- 07-28 Washington R16 L Shelton (1940 Elite) 4-6 6-4 4-6 — competitive vs elite, +shape
- 07-26 Washington FINAL W Shelbayh (1610) 4-6 7-5 7-6 — GRIND, TITLE
- 07-25 Washington SF W Coppejans (1578) 6-2 6-0 — DOM
- 07-01 Wimbledon L Rinderknech (1630) grass
- 06-29 Wimbledon W Trungelliti (1448) grass
Serial recent Challenger champ (Washington/London/Hertogenbosch/Bordeaux titles).
Beat Dimitrov & Rinderknech on clay. Path: already grooved on hard court.
ROCHA (B, 22, #120) — CLAY specialist, FADING, TRANSITION to hard:
- 07-20 Estoril R32 L Martinez (1626) 5-7 5-7 clay
- 07-13 Umag R32 L Dzumhur (1646) 6-2 6-1 clay — blown out
- 06-22 Wimbledon L Mejia (1468) 4-6 7-6 2-6 grass
- 06-15 Nottingham L O'Connell grass
- 06-12 Ilkley L Blanch grass
Best form all on CLAY (Perugia title, FO run). Lost last 2, one a blowout.
═══ SHAPE / PATH / SURFACE ═══
Damm SHARPENING on hard (title + DOM + competitive-vs-elite) — no transition, sharp.
Rocha FADING (0-2 last two, blowout loss) + clay→HARD TRANSITION + 12d rust.
Every qualitative vector favours the favourite Damm; none supports the dog Rocha.
═══ FATIGUE ═══
Damm 3 matches/7d, 375min, last 07-28 (4d rest), age 22 → fully recovered, no penalty.
Rocha 12d idle — rust, not fatigue. No extreme spot either side.
═══ NARRATIVE ═══
Damm won Washington Final 07-26 (~5-6d) → WEAK letdown only, already backed up with
a competitive R16 vs Shelton. Rocha: no positive signal on this surface.
ELO/ranking: A #115 ELO-fav 63.5% ≈ market — credible, no farmed-rating flag on ELO
(though ML 73.8% IS Challenger-farmed → discounted).
═══ GATES ═══
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric edge at executable/book price clears the bar.
Damm @1.44 needs 69.4%; ELO/market give ~64% (negative edge). Trusting the
inflated ML (73.8%) gives ~4.4% vs book — below the 8% book-priced bar.
Rocha @2.62 needs >38.2%; ELO 36.5%/market 35.5% and true prob lower (rust+
transition) → negative edge. The 1% value_pick is a book-margin artifact.
G2 consensus: PASS(tier n/a) — ELO+market consensus on Damm; ML lone outlier.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a — ML market, no bet.
═══ VERDICT: PASS ═══
Market and ELO agree on Damm ~64%; ML is inflated by Damm's Challenger-farmed
serve/return and is discounted. No exchange price (book-priced, 8% bar). At 1.44
Damm has no room; the dog Rocha's nominal 1% edge is contradicted by a strong
qualitative read (rust + clay→hard transition + fading form) — his real prob is
below the market's. Nothing clears any pricing bar. PASS.