TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Colmegna vs M. Ristic (Ljubljana on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with M. Ristic favoured at 1.18.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Colmegna | M. Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.1% | 74.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
12.2% | 87.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
26.7% | 73.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
20.6% | 79.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Colmegna | clay | 1464 | 126–102 | 228 |
| M. Ristic | clay | 1652 | 110–73 | 183 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.
M. Ristic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 18, 2022 | W25 Vrnjacka Banja | clay | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 |
| W | G. Price | 2 - 0 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Lovric | Walk Over | Aug. 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Hejtmankova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Argyrokastriti | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| L | N. Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | L. Gjorcheska | 0 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| L | H. Sakatsume | 0 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | F. Jorge | 0 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Akli | 2 - 1 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| W | R. Dencheva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →