TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Cilic vs D. Medvedev (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Cilic | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.2% | 86.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.9% | 61.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.1% | 72.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cilic | hard | 1813 | 64–52 | 116 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Medvedev | 3 - 0 |
| June 13, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 |
| May 30, 2022 | French Open | clay | M. Cilic | 3 - 0 |
| July 3, 2021 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Medvedev | 3 - 2 |
| W | S. Shimabukuro | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 | June 13, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used