TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Ceban vs R. Carballes Baena (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with R. Carballes Baena favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Ceban | R. Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.8% | 50.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.9% | 88.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ceban | hard | 1140 | 4–9 | 13 |
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
R. Carballes Baena leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Carballes Baena | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Robertson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | R. Hohmann | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Hooper | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Mackenzie | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | G. Goode | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used