TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Bulgaru vs V. Strakhova (Bastad on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Bulgaru favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Bulgaru | V. Strakhova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.1% | 29.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.0% | 44.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.1% | 47.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.3% | 27.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bulgaru | clay | 1468 | 136–111 | 247 |
| V. Strakhova | clay | 1306 | 110–124 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Bastad | clay | M. Bulgaru | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 3, 2024 | Florianopolis Challenger Women | clay | V. Strakhova | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Monnet | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | C. W. Hennemann | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | E. Pridankina | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | C. Paquet | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | M. Bulgaru | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Kovackova | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Korokozidi | 1 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | E. R. Bertea | 2 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used