TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Berrettini vs A. Fils (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with A. Fils favoured at 1.58.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Berrettini | A. Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.1% | 73.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.5% | 58.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1804 | 70–53 | 123 |
| A. Fils | hard | 1933 | 90–61 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Berrettini | 3 - 1 |
| Sept. 27, 2024 | ATP Tokyo | hard | A. Fils | 0 - 1 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | June 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══ M. Berrettini vs A. Fils — Wimbledon 1/32-finals (grass) ═══
MODELS
ELO A: 0.685 ML A: 0.261 Model A: 0.685
Market A: 0.415 (2.23) | B: 0.585 (1.58)
Value pick A, edge +0.27 — driven purely by ELO grass bias, NOT ML.
ELO vs ML DISAGREE sharply; ML + market both side firmly with Fils.
FORM
Berrettini (A): beat Wawrinka (ELO 1511) 6/30, 3-1 w/ THREE tiebreaks
→ GRIND vs Weak, 208min. First grass of season. Clay season poor
(losses to Arnaldi, Ugo Carabelli, Popyrin, Prizmic, Fonseca 6-2 6-2,
Medvedev 0-6 0-6). Fading former-elite leaning on grass pedigree.
Fils (B): beat Collignon 3-0 (7-5 6-1 6-3) 6/30 — clean DOM vs Avg.
Barcelona CHAMPION run (beat Musetti/Nakashima/Lehecka, F loss Rublev),
Madrid SF (lost Sinner). Clearly top-15 current level. Grass unproven
but competent (1-1 Boodles exos vs Paul/Mensik).
FATIGUE
A: 1 match/14d, 208min, 2 days rest.
B: 3 matches/14d, 310min, back-to-back flag. Heavier legs (>60min diff)
→ slight fatigue edge to Berrettini. Only tangible A advantage.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (no recent Final for either; Fils Barcelona F was Apr).
Venue: neither has Wimbledon track record in window.
Title recency: Fils title Barcelona ~10wk ago (clay, doesn't carry to grass).
VERDICT — PASS
The +0.27 "value" on Berrettini is a mirage: stale grass surface ELO
overrating a declining player. ML (0.74 Fils) and market (0.585 Fils)
agree Fils is the better man, validated by form — Barcelona champion vs
a guy who scraped past Wawrinka in three breakers. Fatigue slightly favors
Berrettini but not enough to lay a clearly superior opponent at 2.23.
Model edge killed by qualitative read. No side to back.