TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Bayerlova vs D. Martynov (Contrexeville on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with D. Martynov favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Bayerlova | D. Martynov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.6% | 67.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.0% | 71.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bayerlova | clay | 1275 | 84–77 | 161 |
| D. Martynov | hard | 1382 | 43–52 | 95 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 5, 2026.
D. Martynov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | D. Martynov | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Mikulskyte | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Martynov | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | A. Zolotareva | 2 - 0 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Milovanovic | 1 - 2 | June 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Ilic | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Urgesi | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Pridankina | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | X. Yao | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. Parcelli | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used