TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Bassols vs P. Badosa (Bastad on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with P. Badosa favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Bassols | P. Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.7% | 71.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bassols | hard | 1563 | 105–80 | 185 |
| P. Badosa | hard | 1824 | 78–54 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Bastad | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Rus | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used