TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Basing vs R. Bertola (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with R. Bertola favoured at 1.38.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Basing | R. Bertola |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
22.5% | 77.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
17.6% | 82.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.5% | 77.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Basing | hard | 1594 | 75–26 | 101 |
| R. Bertola | clay | 1579 | 137–99 | 236 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
M. Basing leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Basing | 3 - 2 |
| W | L. Ratti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Bittoun | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Rawat | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Palan | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | H. Searle | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Johnson | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used