TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Barthel vs R. Zelnickova (Ljubljana on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with M. Barthel favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Barthel | R. Zelnickova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.9% | 30.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.5% | 23.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.5% | 51.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.0% | 35.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.8% | 18.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barthel | clay | 1511 | 62–66 | 128 |
| R. Zelnickova | clay | 1404 | 52–61 | 113 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.
| L | F. Ferro | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 0 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Kubka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 5, 2026 |
| W | K. Najzer | 2 - 0 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Kulambayeva | 0 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Sacco | 1 - 2 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | A. Geerlings Martinez | 0 - 2 | Aug. 21, 2026 |
| W | P. Leykina | 0 - 1 | Aug. 20, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →