TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Barthel vs L. Zhu (Wimbledon on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with L. Zhu favoured at 1.31.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Barthel | L. Zhu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
11.7% | 88.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.9% | 62.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
11.7% | 88.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.5% | 68.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barthel | hard | 1675 | 102–75 | 177 |
| L. Zhu | hard | 1663 | 148–93 | 241 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
L. Zhu leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Zhu | 2 - 0 |
| June 29, 2021 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Zhu | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Samson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Pace | Walk Over | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Gadamauri | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | E. Vedder | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | K. Siniakova | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used