TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Barthel vs L. Radivojevic (Bastad on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with L. Radivojevic favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Barthel | L. Radivojevic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.6% | 68.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barthel | hard | 1675 | 102–75 | 177 |
| L. Radivojevic | clay | 1586 | 116–73 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
L. Radivojevic leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Bastad | clay | L. Radivojevic | 2 - 0 |
| June 6, 2025 | Makarska | clay | L. Radivojevic | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 30, 2024 | W50 Meerbusch | clay | L. Radivojevic | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Samson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Pace | Walk Over | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Gadamauri | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | E. Vedder | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Rouvroy | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Ruggeri | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Lansere | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Chiesa | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ren | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used