TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs Q. Halys (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with M. Arnaldi favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | Q. Halys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.7% | 57.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.5% | 52.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| Q. Halys | hard | 1737 | 144–107 | 251 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
Q. Halys leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | Q. Halys | 3 - 1 |
| April 11, 2026 | Barcelona | clay | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Djere | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
M. Arnaldi vs Q. Halys -- Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) MODELS: ELO A 0.427 (favors Halys .573) | ML A 0.474 | blend A 0.475 | market A 0.526 (1.80) / B 0.474 (2.00). Value pick B (Halys) +5.2% de-vigged. Confidence LOW (0.099). Models lean Halys, market leans Arnaldi. FORM (grass, the relevant surface): Arnaldi: WON Eastbourne title 06-21 (beat Samuel 3-6 6-4 6-4 F; beat Gray 7-6 7-6 SF). Then lost to weak Hussey 4-6 2-6 (06-23). Strong grass run + title. Halys: POOR grass run -- L Humbert 3-6 4-6 (06-25), L Samuel 2-6 4-6 (Eastbourne SF 06-20), L Shimabukuro 4-6 2-6 (Stuttgart). Only W vs weak Hussey 6-1 7-5. TRANSITIVE (grass): Arnaldi beat Samuel; Samuel beat Halys -> favors Arnaldi. COMMON OPP Hussey: Halys beat him easily; Arnaldi lost to him -> favors Halys (conflicting). H2H: Halys won 1-6 7-6 7-6 (Barcelona, CLAY). FATIGUE: Arnaldi 287min / Halys 212min court time (diff 75min >60 -> slight Arnaldi disadvantage). Both 3 matches/14d; rested (Arnaldi 7d, Halys 5d). Roughly equal, marginal lean Halys. NARRATIVE: Arnaldi TITLE: Eastbourne 9d ago (grass) -- let-down window passed (WEAK/none at 9d). No strong let-down spot. VERDICT: PASS. The model's Halys edge is ELO/clay-weighted and is contradicted by current grass form -- Arnaldi just won a grass title and beat the player who beat Halys. The +5.2% value pick is thin, low-confidence, and undercut by surface form rather than validated. Market favors Arnaldi but offers no value either (market + Arnaldi grass form agree). No clean edge -- stand down.