TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs A. Gray (Eastbourne on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with M. Arnaldi favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | A. Gray |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.2% | 62.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.8% | 39.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| A. Gray | hard | 1591 | 181–80 | 261 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Santillan | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | I. Almazan Valiente | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | C. Chidekh | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | P. Brady | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used