TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Zaar vs V. Lepchenko (Bastad on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with L. Zaar favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Zaar | V. Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.2% | 44.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.8% | 40.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Zaar | clay | 1503 | 61–50 | 111 |
| V. Lepchenko | hard | 1587 | 91–76 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
V. Lepchenko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Bastad | clay | V. Lepchenko | 2 - 1 |
| L | A-L. Friedsam | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Malygina | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | Z. Kulambayeva | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | V. Lepchenko | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Sieg | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Jones | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Ngounoue | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | A. Petkovic | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used