TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Baez (moneyline) at 3.70 in L. Tien vs S. Baez (Cincinnati on 2026-08-15). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | S. Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.7% | 29.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.9% | 24.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.8% | 30.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.0% | 29.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 7, 2026.
L. Tien leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 16, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Khachanov | 3 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 3 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | G. Monfils | 0 - 3 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 0 - 3 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 1 - 0 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | H. Grenier | 0 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| W | L. Harris | 2 - 0 | Aug. 23, 2026 |
All Aug. 15, 2026 results & picks →