TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Baez (moneyline) at 3.70 in L. Tien vs S. Baez (Cincinnati on 2026-08-15). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | S. Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.7% | 29.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.9% | 24.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.8% | 30.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.0% | 29.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 4, 2026.
L. Tien leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 16, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | D. Vallejo | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| L | C. Hemery | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Glinka | 2 - 1 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | T. Machac | 0 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
All Aug. 15, 2026 results & picks →