TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Stefanini vs T. Maria (Newport on 2026-07-10) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Stefanini | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
25.5% | 74.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.7% | 53.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
32.5% | 67.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.5% | 74.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.4% | 73.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stefanini | hard | 1644 | 116–80 | 196 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
T. Maria leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10, 2026 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| March 24, 2025 | Puerto Vallarta | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 18, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | L. Stefanini | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 23, 2019 | Poitiers | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Akli | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used