TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Stefanini vs C. Zhao (Newport on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with L. Stefanini favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Stefanini | C. Zhao |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.6% | 26.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.1% | 32.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stefanini | hard | 1644 | 116–80 | 196 |
| C. Zhao | hard | 1451 | 80–96 | 176 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
L. Stefanini leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Newport | grass | L. Stefanini | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 22, 2025 | US Open | hard | L. Stefanini | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Akli | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Jones | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Stefanini | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | J. Mikulskyte | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Naef | 0 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used