TENNISEDGE.GG

L. Samsonova vs M. Bouzkova — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · · July 3, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samsonova vs M. Bouzkova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with M. Bouzkova favoured at 1.66.

Surface grass Odds L. Samsonova 2.39 · M. Bouzkova 1.66

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: L. Samsonova · M. Bouzkova · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method L. Samsonova M. Bouzkova
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 49.0% 51.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 40.4% 59.6%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 42.5% 57.5%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 49.0% 51.0%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 41.0% 59.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
L. Samsonova hard1750 30–3262
M. Bouzkova hard1747 128–86214

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.

Head to head

L. Samsonova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 4, 2026WimbledongrassM. Bouzkova2 - 1
Jan. 7, 2025AdelaidehardL. Samsonova2 - 1
Aug. 29, 2024WTA US OpenhardL. Samsonova2 - 1

Recent form

L. Samsonova

W J. Tjen 0 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
L D. Shnaider 2 - 0 July 31, 2026
W Xin. Wang 0 - 2 July 29, 2026
W M. Keys 2 - 1 July 27, 2026
L M. Bouzkova 1 - 2 July 4, 2026

M. Bouzkova

L T. Valentova 1 - 2 July 24, 2026
W C. Y. Lee 2 - 0 July 22, 2026
W J. Bouzas Maneiro 2 - 0 July 20, 2026
L E. Mertens 0 - 2 July 6, 2026
W L. Samsonova 1 - 2 July 4, 2026

All July 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

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L. Samsonova (A) vs M. Bouzkova (B)
Wimbledon · grass · 2026-07-04
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MODELS
  ELO   A 0.49 | B 0.51
  ML    A 0.40 | B 0.60
  S/R   A 0.42 | B 0.58
  Model A 0.49 | B 0.51
  Market A 0.41 (2.39) | B 0.59 (1.66)  → value_pick A, edge +0.08 (ELO-only)

FORM
  Samsonova (A): grass building at Wimbledon — d. Kudermetova 6-3 6-3 (DOM, Avg),
    d. Shnaider 4-6 6-4 2-6 (GRIND, Avg). Earlier d. Siniakova (Strong 1774).
    But grass Ls to Svitolina, Mertens, Dart. Mixed.
  Bouzkova (B): RED-HOT grass. Nottingham CHAMPION 12d ago — d. Navarro (1827),
    Pliskova (1749 DOM), Maria (1783). Then 2-0 Wimbledon incl. Grant (Strong 1801).
    Live grass form clearly dominant.

FATIGUE
  A: 4 matches/14d, ~298min court, b2b 0, rested edge.
  B: 6 matches/14d, ~420min court, b2b 3. Court-time diff 122min → B heavier.
  Slight fatigue edge to Samsonova, but Bouzkova proven durable through the run.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down (B): Nottingham Final won 12d ago → beyond window, None (has won since).
  Title recency (B): TITLE Nottingham 12d ago (grass) — live grass surge.
  Venue: neutral (first Wimbledon meeting).

VERDICT — PASS
  The only "edge" is ELO giving A 0.49 vs market 0.41. ML (0.40), serve/return (0.42)
  and market all converge on Bouzkova ~59%. The lone ELO dissent is historical lag,
  and the qualitative read (Bouzkova's grass surge + Nottingham title) CONTRADICTS
  rather than validates the A edge — live form > historical ELO. Samsonova's fatigue
  advantage is real but insufficient against a grass-specialist in dominant form.
  B is efficiently priced (model+market aligned) → no value either side. No bet.
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