TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samson vs M. Ristic (Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with L. Samson favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Samson | M. Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.5% | 40.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.7% | 48.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.3% | 47.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 23, 2023 | ITF W60 Prerov Women | clay | M. Ristic | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samson | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Kotliar | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | N. Brancaccio | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | V. Turini | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All July 31, 2026 results & picks →
L. Samson (18, #203) vs M. Ristic (20, #267) — Targu Mures Qualification QF, clay.
MODELS vs MARKET (A = Samson)
ELO 59.5% | ML 56.9% | blended 54.8%
Betfair: A 1.78 (eff 1.741 -> 57.4% implied) | B 2.16 (eff 2.102 -> 47.6%)
A edge: ELO +2.1%, ML/blended negative -> best case 2% < 5% bar.
B edge: models give B 40.5-45.2% vs 47.6% implied -> B overpriced, negative.
RECENT FORM (last 5, margins only; set orientation flips in feed)
Samson: W Soboleva (ret 4-2), W Breaz 6-4 6-3 (DOM/Weak), L Joint 1637 3set,
L Feistel, W Pigossi 3set. Match-sharp at venue; STABLE.
Ristic: W Kotliar 6-2 2-6 TB, W Semenistaja 6-2 6-3, W Cordenons Final 07-25 (W75 title),
W Turini 6-1 6-3, W Ce. On a long win-streak; SHARPENING but heavy legs.
PATH & SHARPNESS
Both 2 matches deep at Targu Mures (match-sharp, no rust). Both clay natives,
no surface transition. Ristic won a W75 title 6 days ago -> match-tough + confidence.
FATIGUE
Ristic: 7 matches/14d, 589min, 5 in last 7d, won Cordenons title 07-25.
Samson: 4 matches/14d, 308min. Big cumulative gap BUT both last played 07-30
(1 day rest today), no same-day/yesterday 3-setter, no rising back-to-back into
this match -> NOT an extreme spot. Context only, caps at slight edge; cannot
create a bet. Ristic 20 = baseline age.
NARRATIVE
Ristic TITLE: W75 Cordenons 6d ago (clay) — no let-down trigger (not a first Final;
serial finalist). No transition either side. Venue: both winning here.
ALT MARKETS (sim distribution)
Handicap: A -1.5 @1.97 cover 46.78% (eff 52%) neg; B +1.5 @1.92 cover 53.22%
(eff 53.4%) -0.2%. Totals 21.5: U @1.97 52.34% (eff 52%) +0.3% negligible; O neg.
AH: B +1.5 @ 1.92 (no dog >=3.0 ML staked; informational)
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no market clears 5% pre-narrative (best 2.1% ELO-only on A;
ML+blended and both alt markets negative-to-flat). Fatigue gap is context, not edge.
G2 consensus: stake-tier only (n/a, no bet)
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (no margin bet)
VERDICT: PASS. Market efficient across ML/handicap/totals — every executable price sits
within ~2 points of the coherent model/sim distribution. No articulable edge the exchange
is slow to price; the fatigue story is already the kind casuals over-shade and it still
yields no numeric gap. Professional pass.