TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Pavlovic +1.5 (game handicap) at 2.49 in L. Pavlovic vs I. Simakin (Almaty on 2026-10-17). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Pavlovic | I. Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.9% | 59.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.7% | 53.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
79.3% | 20.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Pavlovic | hard | 1577 | 20–21 | 41 |
| I. Simakin | hard | 1710 | 182–86 | 268 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 8, 2026.
I. Simakin leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17, 2026 | Almaty | hard | I. Simakin | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 5, 2026 | Shanghai | hard | I. Simakin | 2 - 1 |
| L | H. Grenier | 1 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | J. Kym | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | I. Simakin | 1 - 2 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Bellucci | 0 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | Oct. 18, 2026 |
| W | L. Pavlovic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
| W | R. Te | 0 - 2 | Oct. 6, 2026 |
All Oct. 17, 2026 results & picks →