TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Noskova vs C. McNally (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Noskova favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Noskova | C. McNally |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.0% | 28.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.2% | 32.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.6% | 39.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.1% | 24.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Noskova | hard | 1892 | 107–53 | 160 |
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
C. McNally leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 14, 2022 | W60 Trnava 2 | hard | C. McNally | 2 - 1 |
| W | K. Muchova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used