TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Neumayer vs M. Poljicak (Umag on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with L. Neumayer favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Neumayer | M. Poljicak |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.9% | 56.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.3% | 33.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Neumayer | clay | 1671 | 185–123 | 308 |
| M. Poljicak | clay | 1634 | 129–83 | 212 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
L. Neumayer leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Umag | clay | L. Neumayer | 2 - 1 |
| April 21, 2025 | Rome | clay | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 |
| L | F. Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | J. C. Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Topo | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used