TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Nardi vs O. Virtanen (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with O. Virtanen favoured at 1.34.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Nardi | O. Virtanen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
16.7% | 83.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.2% | 69.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
22.3% | 77.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.8% | 74.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.5% | 68.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Nardi | hard | 1661 | 105–91 | 196 |
| O. Virtanen | hard | 1724 | 122–77 | 199 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | O. Virtanen | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 31, 2026 | Manama | hard | L. Nardi | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | R. Noguchi | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Bertola | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | G. Hussey | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| L | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | F. Romano | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Dedura | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | H. Squire | 0 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used