TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Nardi vs A. Guerrieri (Umag on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with L. Nardi favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Nardi | A. Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.9% | 64.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Nardi | hard | 1661 | 105–91 | 196 |
| A. Guerrieri | clay | 1677 | 98–70 | 168 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
A. Guerrieri leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Umag | clay | A. Guerrieri | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | R. Noguchi | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Bertola | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | G. Hussey | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | L. Nardi | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | O. Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used